10-Q · May 4, 2026
AGNC reported Q1 2026 results, with diluted EPS of $0.42 exceeding estimates of $0.37. However, total revenue of $319 million fell short of expectations of $375.99 million. The company also faced a comprehensive loss of…
Earnings analysis · 10-Q
AGNC earnings analysis
Filed October 29, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report
The latest report
AGNC reported EPS of $0.37 and revenue of approximately $402 million, missing consensus estimates of $0.39 and $443.3 million, respectively. The 10-Q indicates increased balance-sheet sensitivity, with the duration gap…
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AGNC reported EPS of $0.37 and revenue of approximately $402 million, missing consensus estimates of $0.39 and $443.3 million, respectively. The 10-Q indicates increased balance-sheet sensitivity, with the duration gap rising to 0.8 years from 0.4 years and modeled tangible book value declines of 4.9% and 7.7% under 50- and 75-basis-point rate increases. Liquidity was described as sufficient, but spread and funding risks remain substantial; no quantitative forward guidance was provided.
How we read each report
Our analysis across the last few reports.
Our model's reading of each filing, not the share price or the market's reaction. Annual and quarterly reports each occupy one position.
Reported figures
- Earnings per share
- $0.37
What stood out
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Quarter missed consensus estimates
Reported EPS was $0.37 and revenue was approximately $402 million; EPS was below the $0.39 consensus estimate and revenue was below the $443.3 million estimate.
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Duration gap widened
Estimated duration gap increased to 0.8 years as of September 30, 2026 from 0.4 years as of December 31, 2025, indicating greater net interest-rate sensitivity.
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Liquidity remains adequate
Management stated it believed liquidity and capital resources were sufficient as of September 30, 2026 to execute its business strategy. Maximum counterparty exposure was less than 2% of tangible stockholders’ equity for repurchase agreements and less than 1% for derivatives.
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Prepayment profile improved
The portfolio’s weighted-average projected CPR declined to 6.7% from 9.6% at December 31, 2025, while weighted-average yield increased to 4.99% from 4.93%.
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Down-rate sensitivity improved
Under a 75-basis-point decline in rates, estimated tangible net book value per common share would increase 4.8% as of September 30, 2026, versus a modeled 2.4% decline at December 31, 2025.
What to watch
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Material interest-rate exposure
A 50-basis-point rate increase was modeled to reduce tangible net book value per common share by 4.9% as of September 30, 2026; a 75-basis-point increase implied a 7.7% decline.
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Mortgage-spread widening risk
A 25-basis-point widening in MBS spreads was modeled to reduce portfolio market value by 1.4% and tangible net book value per common share by 14.4% as of September 30, 2026.
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Higher funding and margin risk
The duration gap rose from 0.4 years at December 31, 2025 to 0.8 years at September 30, 2026, while the company notes that higher collateral haircuts or initial-margin requirements could force asset sales or reduce leverage.
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No formal risk-factor update
The filing states that there were no material changes to the risk factors previously disclosed in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025.
Management's outlook
The 10-Q does not provide quantitative revenue or EPS guidance. Management states it had sufficient liquidity and capital resources as of September 30, 2026, but gives no forward earnings outlook.
Earlier filings 4
10-K · February 23, 2026
AGNC's 2025 Form 10-K reiterates a concentrated, actively managed Agency RMBS strategy funded chiefly with repo financing and supported by its captive broker-dealer, Bethesda Securities (BES). Management targets…
10-Q · October 31, 2025
AGNC reported a materially stronger quarter: net income of $806 million (Q3 2025) vs $346 million (Q3 2024) and diluted net income per common share of $0.72 vs $0.39 a year ago. Net interest income swung positive to…
10-Q · November 1, 2024
AGNC reported a strong quarter vs. the year-ago period, swinging to net income of $346 million in Q3 2024 from a net loss of $(392) million in Q3 2023 and diluted EPS of $0.39 (Q3 2023: $(0.68)). The result was driven…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.