10-Q · May 7, 2026
CF Industries reported a robust Q1 2026 with revenue reaching **$1.99 billion**, significantly outpacing estimates of **$1.84 billion**. The company achieved an EPS of **$3.98**, which exceeded the consensus estimate of…
Earnings analysis · 10-Q
CF earnings analysis
Filed November 5, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report
The latest report
CF Industries reported Q3 revenue of $1.86 billion and diluted EPS of $2.87. Revenue increased approximately 12.0% year over year but declined approximately 16.2% sequentially, while gross margin fell to 38.7% from…
Read full summary
CF Industries reported Q3 revenue of $1.86 billion and diluted EPS of $2.87. Revenue increased approximately 12.0% year over year but declined approximately 16.2% sequentially, while gross margin fell to 38.7% from 51.5% in Q2 but remained slightly above the 38.1% prior-year level. The EPS miss and sequential margin compression are offset by year-over-year revenue and margin resilience, continued share repurchases, and reiterated expectations for approximately 9.5 million tons of 2026 gross ammonia production and approximately $950 million of capital expenditures.
Gross and operating margin
How much of each revenue dollar the business keeps.
One point per quarterly or annual filing. Both margins are shares of that report's revenue.
How we read each report
Our analysis across the last few reports.
Our model's reading of each filing, not the share price or the market's reaction. Annual and quarterly reports each occupy one position.
Reported figures
- Earnings per share
- $2.87
- Gross margin
- 38.7%
What stood out
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Revenue remained above prior year
Third-quarter revenue was $1.86 billion, up approximately 12.0% from $1.66 billion in Q3 2025, although down approximately 16.2% from $2.22 billion in Q2 2026.
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Gross margin improved year over year
Gross margin was 38.7%, up 0.6 percentage points from 38.1% in Q3 2025 but down 12.8 percentage points from 51.5% in Q2 2026.
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Significant share repurchases continued
The company repurchased 3,044,867 shares during the quarter at an average price of $123.16, leaving approximately $1.110 billion available under the repurchase authorization.
What to watch
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Natural-gas price exposure
The company had open natural-gas derivative contracts covering 37.2 million MMBtus through March 2027, leaving earnings exposed to commodity-price movements despite hedging.
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EPS missed consensus estimates
Diluted EPS was $2.87 versus the $3.03 consensus estimate, a shortfall of $0.16 or approximately 5.3%, indicating sequential earnings pressure alongside the decline in gross margin from 51.5% to 38.7%.
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Ongoing capital allocation commitment
The company repurchased 3,044,867 shares at an average price of $123.16 while approximately $1.110 billion remained authorized, representing a material ongoing use of liquidity that could compete with other capital needs.
Management's outlook
No numeric revenue or EPS guidance was provided. Management expects approximately 9.5 million tons of 2026 gross ammonia production and approximately $950 million of CF-funded capital expenditures; the filing does not provide a revised quantitative outlook versus the prior outlook.
Earlier filings 4
10-K · February 25, 2026
CF Industries reported net sales of $7.08 billion in 2025 (up from $5.94 billion in 2024) with gross margin improving to $2.72 billion. Management advanced its low-carbon ammonia strategy — commissioning Donaldsonville…
10-Q · November 6, 2025
CF Industries reported Q3 net sales of $1,659 million and diluted EPS of $2.19, both meaningfully higher than the year-ago quarter (net sales $1,370 million; diluted EPS $1.55). Margins were strong with gross margin of…
10-Q · May 8, 2025
CF Industries reported Q1 revenue of $1,663 million (up $193 million, +13.1% YoY) and diluted EPS of $1.85 (up $0.82 from $1.03 a year ago), driven by higher sales across Ammonia, UAN and Granular Urea. Operating…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.