10-Q · July 28, 2026
Expand posted Q2 GAAP EPS of $2.19 and $2.960 billion of total revenues and other, exceeding the $1.15 EPS and $1.991 billion revenue consensus estimates. Underlying commodity sales nonetheless fell $191 million year…
Earnings analysis · 10-Q
EXE earnings analysis
Filed October 27, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report
The latest report
Expand Energy reported $3.286 billion of revenue and $1.46 of adjusted diluted EPS, exceeding consensus estimates of $1.8505 billion and $1.31. Operating cash flow was $1.177 billion, but operating income, net income…
Read full summary
Expand Energy reported $3.286 billion of revenue and $1.46 of adjusted diluted EPS, exceeding consensus estimates of $1.8505 billion and $1.31. Operating cash flow was $1.177 billion, but operating income, net income and free cash flow declined year over year; exact gross margin, operating margin and free cash flow amounts are not provided in the supplied filing text. Management updated 2026 capital investment expectations to approximately $3 billion and expects 11–12 rigs with average daily production of 7.45–7.55 Bcfe/d, while the newly completed Twin Eagle Acquisition introduces integration and execution risk.
Gross and operating margin
How much of each revenue dollar the business keeps.
One point per quarterly or annual filing. Both margins are shares of that report's revenue.
How we read each report
Our analysis across the last few reports.
Our model's reading of each filing, not the share price or the market's reaction. Annual and quarterly reports each occupy one position.
Reported figures
- Earnings per share
- $1.46
What stood out
-
Revenue and adjusted EPS beat estimates
Revenue was $3.286 billion and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.46, ahead of consensus estimates of $1.8505 billion and $1.31, respectively.
-
Operating cash generation remained strong
Operating cash flow was $1.177 billion for the period, providing substantial internally generated liquidity despite lower year-over-year operating earnings and free cash flow.
-
Diversified commodity revenue base
Current-period revenue excluding derivatives included $6.134 billion from natural gas, $319 million from oil and $573 million from NGLs, indicating broad commodity exposure across the portfolio.
-
Hedging supports cash-flow visibility
Commodity derivatives were net assets of $911 million as of September 30, 2026, and management stated that the instruments remain effective economic hedges.
-
Share repurchases continued
The company repurchased 3,407,639 shares in July at an average price of $89.49, leaving $1.0 billion available under the repurchase authorization at quarter-end.
-
Controls remained effective
Management reported that disclosure controls were effective as of September 30, 2026, while integration of the Twin Eagle assets began during the quarter.
What to watch
-
Commodity-price volatility
A 10% increase or decrease in commodity prices would change current-period natural gas, oil and NGL revenue by approximately $613 million, $32 million and $57 million, respectively, highlighting material earnings and cash-flow sensitivity.
-
Derivative valuation exposure
A 10% fluctuation in forward commodity prices would change the valuation of commodity derivatives by approximately $574 million; the reported derivative fair value was a net asset of $911 million.
-
Floating-rate debt exposure
The company had $450 million outstanding under its Credit Facility as of September 30, 2026. A 1.0% increase in variable interest rates would increase annual interest expense by approximately $5 million.
-
Twin Eagle integration risk
The filing adds a specific risk that the Twin Eagle Acquisition may not deliver expected benefits and that integration could disrupt operations or create unforeseen expenses. The acquisition was completed during the current quarter, and the company began integrating the acquired assets into internal controls.
-
Counterparty performance risk
Commodity derivative counterparties may fail to meet their obligations; a 10% change in forward prices could affect derivative valuation by approximately $574 million, although collateral requirements partially mitigate counterparty exposure.
-
Environmental and litigation exposure
Legal and environmental outcomes could exceed accrued estimates. The company uses a $1 million threshold for disclosure of environmental proceedings, but states that the threshold does not necessarily represent materiality and that actual results could differ materially.
Management's outlook
The filing discusses approximately $3 billion of 2026 capital investment, 11–12 rigs, and average daily production of 7.45–7.55 Bcfe/d. It does not provide revenue or EPS guidance, and the prior capex outlook is not disclosed, so the direction of the capex update cannot be determined.
Earlier filings 4
10-Q · April 28, 2026
Expand Energy reported a strong operating quarter with materially higher sales and cash generation: natural gas, oil and NGL sales were $3,315 million and marketing revenues were $1,212 million (combined ~$4,527…
10-K · February 18, 2026
Expand Energy completed the Southwestern merger (closed Oct 1, 2024) and describes itself as the largest independent U.S. natural gas producer with operations in Haynesville and the Marcellus/Utica plays. The company…
10-K · February 26, 2025
Expand Energy completed the Southwestern merger on October 1, 2024 and positions itself as the largest independent U.S. natural gas producer with interests in ~8,000 gross wells. 2024 production was 1,375 Bcfe and total…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.