10-Q · April 30, 2026
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. reported Q1 2026 earnings with total revenues of $458.6 million and net income of $72.3 million, translating to EPS of $1.37, slightly below the consensus estimate of $1.38. The overall…
Earnings analysis · 10-Q
HCC earnings analysis
Filed November 4, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report
The latest report
Warrior delivered strong year-over-year operational growth in Q3, led by Blue Creek: revenue rose 54.6%, mining volumes increased 48.2%, and operating margin expanded to 10.0%. However, EPS of $0.93 missed the $1.49…
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Warrior delivered strong year-over-year operational growth in Q3, led by Blue Creek: revenue rose 54.6%, mining volumes increased 48.2%, and operating margin expanded to 10.0%. However, EPS of $0.93 missed the $1.49 consensus estimate, while cash cost per ton increased and coal-market sentiment softened late in the quarter. Liquidity and cash generation remain strong, although elevated working capital, ongoing capital spending and commodity-price exposure temper the outlook.
From revenue to operating profit
Where each $100 of revenue went in this report.
Cost of sales, operating expenses, and what remained. Figures are rounded to whole dollars.
Where revenue came from
The business segments reported by the company.
Shares of the segments disclosed in this filing, largest first.
Reported figures
- Earnings per share
- $0.93
What stood out
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Revenue Growth; EPS Misses Consensus
Third-quarter revenue was $507.9 million, up $179.3 million, or 54.6%, from $328.6 million in the prior-year quarter and broadly in line with the $507.2 million consensus estimate. Diluted EPS was $0.93 versus $0.70 a year earlier, but below the $1.49 estimate.
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Operating Profitability Improved
Operating income increased to $50.8 million from $20.7 million, while operating margin expanded to 10.0% from 6.3% year over year. Gross margin was approximately 26.1% versus 24.8% in the prior-year quarter.
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Blue Creek Drives Volume Growth
Mining sales volume rose 48.2% to 3.166 million metric tons, and production increased 35.8% to 2.770 million metric tons, primarily due to the Blue Creek ramp-up. Average net selling price increased $8.52 to $158.25 per metric ton.
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Cash Generation Strengthened
Nine-month operating cash flow increased to $286.5 million from $153.2 million year over year. Capital expenditures declined to $136.2 million from $226.1 million, implying approximately $150.4 million of nine-month operating cash flow less capex.
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Strong Liquidity Position
Cash and cash equivalents increased to $437.1 million from $300.0 million at December 31, 2025. Total liquidity was $577.6 million, including $140.5 million of undrawn ABL availability, with no ABL loans outstanding.
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Shareholder Returns and Tax Benefit
The company declared a $2.00 per-share special dividend on October 27, 2026, in addition to the regular $0.08 quarterly dividend. The 45X tax credit reduced cost of sales by $10.8 million in the quarter and $28.9 million year to date.
What to watch
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Higher Unit Costs Pressure Margins
Cash cost of sales increased to $115.73 per metric ton from $111.00 year over year. Management cited lower Mine No. 7 production, inflationary cost increases, higher transportation and royalty costs, and the effect of higher coal prices on the variable cost structure.
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Met Coal Pricing Could Weaken
Market sentiment softened late in the quarter as Chinese domestic production was expected to recover; Premium LV FOB prices averaged $278.57 per metric ton in Q3 versus $238.27 in Q2. Management also cited weakening steel margins and anticipated mine restarts and higher Mongolian exports.
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Tariff and Capital Spending Risk
Management stated that additional U.S. tariffs or retaliatory trade measures could increase operating costs, reduce demand, disrupt supply chains and change coal pricing, while the ultimate impact could not be reasonably estimated. The company also expects 2026 capital spending of up to $190.0 million.
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Working Capital Absorbs Cash
Trade accounts receivable increased to $246.2 million from $181.6 million at December 31, 2025, and management said the increase in net working capital was $125.8 million for the first nine months, primarily due to higher receivables, prepaid items and lower accrued expenses.
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Debt and Long-Term Obligations
The company has $154.8 million of long-term debt, consisting primarily of 7.875% senior secured notes due December 2028, plus $77.6 million of finance lease liabilities and $34.6 million of black lung obligations.
Management's outlook
No numeric revenue or EPS guidance was provided. Management expects full-year 2026 capital spending of $155.0 million to $190.0 million, including sustaining capital of approximately $105.0 million to $115.0 million and $71.3 million of discretionary Blue Creek spending.
Earlier filings 1
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.