10-Q · May 7, 2026
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation reported strong Q1 2026 results with revenue of $358.5 million, slightly exceeding expectations, and an EPS of $0.54, surpassing the consensus estimate. The company continues to target 5%…
Earnings analysis · 10-Q
MGY earnings analysis
Filed November 5, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report
The latest report
Magnolia delivered a strong revenue and adjusted earnings quarter, with $513.9 million of revenue, adjusted EPS of $0.71 and adjusted free cash flow of $223.7 million. However, GAAP diluted EPS was only $0.35, below…
Read full summary
Magnolia delivered a strong revenue and adjusted earnings quarter, with $513.9 million of revenue, adjusted EPS of $0.71 and adjusted free cash flow of $223.7 million. However, GAAP diluted EPS was only $0.35, below consensus and down sequentially, reflecting acquisition-related costs and derivative effects. The WildFire transaction materially increases production potential, but also adds integration, leverage and commodity-hedging risks; Q4 guidance was maintained and 2027 guidance calls for 4%-5% production growth with $900-$950 million of D&C capital spending.
Gross and operating margin
How much of each revenue dollar the business keeps.
One point per quarterly or annual filing. Both margins are shares of that report's revenue.
How we read each report
Our analysis across the last few reports.
Our model's reading of each filing, not the share price or the market's reaction. Annual and quarterly reports each occupy one position.
Reported figures
- Earnings per share
- $0.35
What stood out
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Revenue beat and accelerated
Revenue was $513.9 million, up from $479 million in Q2 2026 and $325 million in Q3 2025, increases of approximately 7% sequentially and 58% year over year. Revenue also exceeded the $469.8 million consensus estimate by approximately 9.4%.
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Adjusted earnings and cash flow strong
Adjusted EPS was $0.71 versus the $0.57 estimate, a 24.6% beat, while adjusted EBITDAX increased to $392.0 million and adjusted free cash flow reached $223.7 million.
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Production outlook steps higher
Production increased to 117.3 Mboe/d in Q3 2026, and management's Q4 outlook calls for 159-161 Mboe/d, reflecting the contribution from the WildFire Acquisition.
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Share repurchases continued
The company repurchased 5.26 million Class A shares during the first nine months of 2026 at an average price of $26.92, with 7.613 million shares remaining under the authorization at September 30, 2026.
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Repurchase capacity expanded
The board increased the repurchase authorization by an additional 15.0 million shares on November 2, 2026, bringing the remaining total authorization to 22.6 million shares.
What to watch
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GAAP EPS pressured by acquisition costs
GAAP diluted EPS was $0.35, below the $0.57 consensus estimate and down from $0.97 in Q2 2026 and $0.40 in Q3 2025. Acquisition-related costs and derivative losses contributed to the gap versus adjusted EPS of $0.71.
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Debt and derivative exposure
Magnolia had $435.0 million outstanding under the RBL Facility at September 30, 2026; a 1% change in the applicable interest rate would change annual interest expense by approximately $4.4 million. The company also reported a $178.1 million net fair value liability on oil derivatives.
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WildFire integration risk
The WildFire Acquisition closed on September 10, 2026, and Magnolia issued 32.203 million Class A shares to the seller. Management is still integrating WildFire's operations, controls, processes and information systems, creating execution and internal-control integration risk.
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Commodity and hedge volatility
A 10% increase in forward oil prices would increase the net derivative liability by approximately $119.3 million, while a 10% decrease would reduce it by approximately $117.7 million. Oil and gas prices remain volatile and unpredictable.
Management's outlook
Q4 2026 operating guidance was maintained, including production of 159-161 Mboe/d, 49%-50% oil, approximately $235 million of D&C capital spending and $35-$40 million of interest expense. New 2027 outlook calls for 4%-5% production growth and $900-$950 million of D&C capital spending. No numeric revenue or EPS guidance was provided.
Earlier filings 4
10-K · February 12, 2026
Magnolia emphasizes a disciplined, free-cash-flow-first strategy focused on moderate organic production growth and low leverage, targeting Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk assets in South Texas. 2025 operational results show…
10-Q · October 30, 2025
Magnolia reported Q3 revenues of $324,935,000 and GAAP diluted EPS of $0.40. Operating income for the quarter was $101,464,000 (operating margin ~31.2%) while net income attributable to Class A common stock was…
10-Q · October 31, 2024
Magnolia reported Q3 revenue of $333.135M (up $17.457M, +5.5% YoY) while diluted EPS declined to $0.52 from $0.54 a year ago. Operating income compressed to $129.012M (operating margin 38.7%) from $148.133M in Q3 2023,…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.