10-Q · May 11, 2026
Mosaic Company reported Q1 2026 earnings with a significant net loss of $258 million, resulting in an EPS of $(0.81), markedly below analyst expectations of $0.21. While revenue of $3.0 billion exceeded estimates, costs…
Earnings analysis · 10-Q
MOS earnings analysis
Filed November 4, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report
The latest report
Mosaic's Q3 results show a sharp year-over-year deterioration: revenue declined 10%, gross margin compressed to 2.7% from 16.0%, and diluted EPS fell to $(0.23) from $1.29. Potash remained profitable, but Phosphate and…
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Mosaic's Q3 results show a sharp year-over-year deterioration: revenue declined 10%, gross margin compressed to 2.7% from 16.0%, and diluted EPS fell to $(0.23) from $1.29. Potash remained profitable, but Phosphate and Mosaic Fertilizantes swung to operating losses as sulfur and ammonia inflation, constrained supply, lower volumes and production curtailments overwhelmed pricing benefits. Operating cash flow fell to $556.0 million against $958.6 million of capex, while debt increased following a $2.0 billion senior-note issuance. Management provided no explicit numeric revenue or EPS guidance, but said liquidity should cover operations and obligations for the next 12 months and beyond.
Gross and operating margin
How much of each revenue dollar the business keeps.
One point per quarterly or annual filing. Both margins are shares of that report's revenue.
From revenue to operating profit
Where each $100 of revenue went in this report.
Cost of sales, operating expenses, and what remained. Figures are rounded to whole dollars.
Where revenue came from
The business segments reported by the company.
Shares of the segments disclosed in this filing, largest first.
How we read each report
Our analysis across the last few reports.
Our model's reading of each filing, not the share price or the market's reaction. Annual and quarterly reports each occupy one position.
Reported figures
- Earnings per share
- $-0.23
What stood out
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Revenue recovered sequentially, margins collapsed
Q3 revenue was $3,100.6 million, down $351.5 million, or 10%, from $3,452.1 million a year earlier, but up from $2,820 million in Q2 2026. Gross margin fell to 2.7% from 16.0% year over year and 7.6% in the prior quarter.
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Earnings deteriorated year over year
Q3 diluted EPS was a loss of $(0.23), versus $1.29 in Q3 2025 and $(0.86) in Q2 2026. Operating loss was $(96.6) million, compared with operating earnings of $339.8 million a year earlier.
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Potash remained the earnings anchor
Potash remained profitable, with Q3 operating earnings of $188.3 million, although down from $228.7 million. Average selling price increased to $280 per tonne from $278, partially offsetting a 9% decline in segment volume to 2.068 million tonnes.
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Phosphate hit by sulfur and curtailments
Phosphate Q3 operating results swung to a $(193.5) million loss from $102.3 million of earnings. Management attributed the decline to approximately $380 million of higher raw-material costs, including sulfur prices of $715 per long ton versus $272, and a 23% production decline.
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Capex exceeded operating cash generation
Nine-month operating cash flow was $556.0 million, down 37% from $880.9 million. Capital expenditures were $958.6 million, producing approximately $(402.6) million of free cash flow and representing 10.7% of nine-month revenue.
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Debt refinancing extended maturities
The company issued $2.0 billion of senior notes on August 17, 2026 and used proceeds partly to retire $1.4 billion of existing debt. September 30 long-term debt, including current maturities, was $5.4 billion, while cash and equivalents were $272.6 million.
What to watch
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Sulfur and ammonia supply shock
Input-cost inflation and supply constraints remain the most immediate operating risk. In Q3, North American sulfur cost rose 163% to $715 per long ton and ammonia cost rose 36% to $619 per tonne; management said higher raw-material costs reduced Phosphate gross margin by approximately $380 million.
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Curtailments and Brazil restructuring
Production curtailments and asset idling are reducing utilization and increasing fixed-cost absorption pressure. Phosphate's processed production operating rate fell to 52% from 68%, while Mosaic Fertilizantes' phosphate operating rate fell to 27% from 84%; the Brazil idling and divestiture actions generated approximately $496 million of nine-month expense.
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Geopolitical and environmental exposure
The filing newly emphasizes geopolitical shipping risk involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, which could further constrain sulfur and ammonia availability and raise transportation costs. The balance sheet also carries $2,529.7 million of asset-retirement obligations and $192.1 million of environmental accruals.
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Higher leverage and financing costs
Liquidity is dependent on debt markets and continued access to credit while profitability is weak. At September 30, the company had $272.6 million of cash, $511.6 million of short-term debt and $5,401.5 million of long-term debt including current maturities; net interest expense increased 30% year over year to $59.5 million in Q3.
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Material uncertain tax position
A potential tax outcome could materially affect future earnings and cash taxes. Gross unrecognized tax benefits remained approximately $1.4 billion, and the company stated that recognition would affect its effective tax rate, deferred tax assets and net earnings.
Management's outlook
The 10-Q does not provide explicit numeric revenue or EPS guidance. Management expects available cash, operating cash flow and borrowing capacity to be sufficient for operations, capital expenditures, debt repayments and dividends for the next 12 months and beyond; the company reported a target liquidity buffer of up to $3.0 billion.
Earlier filings 4
10-K · February 27, 2026
Mosaic highlights scale and market position as a leading phosphate and potash producer (approximately 10% of global phosphate and 12% of global potash production) while reporting a volatile 2025 with a Q4 earnings and…
10-Q · November 5, 2025
Mosaic reported a strong quarter with net sales of $3,452.1 million (up $641.2 million, +22.8% vs Q3 2024) and diluted EPS of $1.29 (vs $0.38 in Q3 2024). Gross margin improved to $552.3 million (16.0% of sales) and…
10-Q · May 7, 2025
Mosaic reported Q1 net sales of $2,620.9 million (down from $2,679.4 million year‑over‑year) but delivered a strong earnings beat driven by margin expansion and non‑operational items: diluted EPS was $0.75 versus $0.14…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.