10-K · June 1, 2026
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. delivered a strong performance in 2025, with total revenue growing to $1.301 billion, up 26% year-over-year, primarily driven by a notable increase in Network AI fees. A significant improvement…
Earnings analysis · 10-Q
PGY earnings analysis
Filed November 2, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report
The latest report
Pagaya delivered strong earnings momentum, with diluted adjusted EPS of $1.07 versus $0.49 in the prior quarter and $0.23 a year earlier, although revenue of $362.155 million declined sequentially and missed consensus.…
Read full summary
Pagaya delivered strong earnings momentum, with diluted adjusted EPS of $1.07 versus $0.49 in the prior quarter and $0.23 a year earlier, although revenue of $362.155 million declined sequentially and missed consensus. Management raised FY2026 GAAP net income guidance to $162 million-$182 million and maintained a significant volume and adjusted EBITDA outlook. The principal risks are the expanding $1,101 million investment exposure and sensitivity to credit losses and discount rates.
Gross and operating margin
How much of each revenue dollar the business keeps.
One point per quarterly or annual filing. Both margins are shares of that report's revenue.
How we read each report
Our analysis across the last few reports.
Our model's reading of each filing, not the share price or the market's reaction. Annual and quarterly reports each occupy one position.
Reported figures
- Earnings per share
- $1.07
What stood out
-
Revenue grew year over year but missed estimates
Revenue was $362.155 million, down 1.1% from $366 million in 2026Q2 but up 6.5% from $340 million in 2025Q3. Revenue was 5.2% below the $382.063 million consensus estimate.
-
EPS accelerated sharply
Diluted adjusted EPS was $1.07 versus $0.49 in 2026Q2 and $0.23 in 2025Q3, representing sequential and year-over-year increases of approximately 118% and 365%, respectively. EPS exceeded the $0.97 consensus estimate by 10.3%.
-
FY2026 profit outlook was raised
Management raised FY2026 GAAP net income guidance to $162 million-$182 million and expects 4Q26 GAAP net income of $42 million-$62 million.
-
Scale and EBITDA outlook remains strong
The FY2026 outlook calls for network volume of $12.725 billion-$13.025 billion, revenue and other income of $1.45 billion-$1.50 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $465 million-$485 million.
-
Investment portfolio expanded
The company reported $1,101 million of investments in loans and securities at September 30, 2026, versus $945 million at December 31, 2025, while net exposure excluding non-controlling interests increased to $1,057 million from $871 million.
What to watch
-
Credit-loss sensitivity is substantial
A hypothetical 100-basis-point increase in the credit loss rate would reduce the fair value of investments in loans and securities by $149.0 million, while the company had $1,101 million of gross credit-risk exposure as of September 30, 2026.
-
Rates could pressure asset values
A hypothetical 100-basis-point increase in discount rates would reduce fair value by $17.1 million; the filing also states that higher interest rates could increase borrowing costs and impair future securitization economics.
-
No material risk-factor update
The company states that there were no material changes from the risk factors disclosed in its 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K, but the filing identifies credit, discount-rate, and floating-rate financing exposures as continuing risks.
Management's outlook
FY2026 outlook was raised to GAAP net income of $162 million-$182 million. The outlook also calls for network volume of $12.725 billion-$13.025 billion, revenue and other income of $1.45 billion-$1.50 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $465 million-$485 million; 4Q26 GAAP net income is expected at $42 million-$62 million.
Earlier filings 4
10-Q · May 7, 2026
Pagaya Technologies reported strong Q1 2026 results with revenue of $317.9 million, a 10% increase year-over-year, despite missing revenue expectations. EPS of $0.73 exceeded estimates by 40%, reflecting growth in…
10-K · April 30, 2026
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. has shown significant recovery and profitability in 2025, with operating margins reaching approximately 20.5% and free cash flow becoming positive. The company attributed this growth to…
10-K · March 2, 2026
Pagaya’s 2025 operating performance shows clear recovery and margin expansion: fee revenue trended up through the year, operating margins reached ~20.5% in Q3–Q4 2025, and free cash flow increased to $77.0 million in Q4…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.