AA Moves

Alcoa Corporation AA 39.54 1.12 2.92%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $39.49

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.1% ±$0.82	$38.68 – $40.31	$38.52 – $40.47	$37.75 – $41.24
2 sessions	±2.9% ±$1.14	$38.36 – $40.63	$38.12 – $40.87	$37.05 – $41.94
3 sessions	±3.6% ±$1.43	$38.07 – $40.92	$37.79 – $41.20	$36.45 – $42.54
1 week	±4.6% ±$1.82	$37.68 – $41.31	$37.28 – $41.71	$35.62 – $43.37
2 weeks	±6.6% ±$2.60	$36.90 – $42.09	$36.28 – $42.71	$33.96 – $45.03
3 weeks	±8.3% ±$3.29	$36.21 – $42.78	$35.41 – $43.58	$32.56 – $46.43
1 month	±9.8% ±$3.88	$35.62 – $43.37	$34.66 – $44.33	$31.28 – $47.71

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±6.39%

Average actual move

4.66%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 6

Median IV change

-20.80%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
July 17, 2026	±6.15%	-6.13%	1.00×	67.3% → 53.3%
April 17, 2026	±6.63%	-6.80%	1.03×	—
January 23, 2026	±6.44%	-1.47%	0.23×	—
July 17, 2025	±5.86%	+2.91%	0.50×	56.8% → 48.5%
April 17, 2025	±6.66%	-6.98%	1.05×	—
January 23, 2025	±6.58%	-3.69%	0.56×	55.6% → 43.3%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →