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Airbnb ABNB 176.37 9.41 5.64%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $177.68
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.5% ±$2.63 $175.05 – $180.31 $174.52 – $180.84 $172.05 – $183.31
2 sessions Earnings ±6.5% ±$11.60 $166.08 – $189.28 $163.23 – $192.12 $152.52 – $202.84
3 sessions Earnings ±7.0% ±$12.36 $165.31 – $190.04 $162.45 – $192.91 $151.13 – $204.22
1 week Earnings ±7.4% ±$13.13 $164.55 – $190.81 $161.38 – $193.97 $150.08 – $205.27
2 weeks Earnings ±8.2% ±$14.53 $163.14 – $192.21 $159.73 – $195.62 $147.03 – $208.33
3 weeks Earnings ±8.9% ±$15.74 $161.94 – $193.42 $158.20 – $197.15 $144.61 – $210.74
1 month Earnings ±9.6% ±$17.02 $160.66 – $194.70 $156.55 – $198.80 $141.88 – $213.48
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. ABNB reports in 2 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±7.92%
Average actual move
8.38%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 6
Median IV change
-40.69%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 07, 2026 ±6.59% +17.43% 2.64× —
May 08, 2026 ±6.39% +0.73% 0.11× —
August 07, 2025 ±7.85% -8.02% 1.02× —
May 02, 2025 ±8.06% +1.01% 0.12× 62.3% → 37.0%
February 14, 2025 ±9.29% +14.45% 1.56× —
November 08, 2024 ±9.33% -8.66% 0.93× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →