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Archer Daniels Midland Company ADM 70.84 0.24 0.34%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $70.84
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.4% ±$1.02 $69.82 – $71.86 $69.61 – $72.07 $68.65 – $73.03
2 sessions ±2.0% ±$1.42 $69.42 – $72.26 $69.12 – $72.56 $67.78 – $73.90
3 sessions ±2.5% ±$1.79 $69.05 – $72.63 $68.71 – $72.97 $67.04 – $74.64
1 week ±3.2% ±$2.27 $68.57 – $73.11 $68.06 – $73.62 $66.00 – $75.68
2 weeks ±4.5% ±$3.19 $67.65 – $74.03 $66.89 – $74.79 $64.04 – $77.64
3 weeks ±5.5% ±$3.92 $66.92 – $74.76 $65.97 – $75.71 $62.55 – $79.13
1 month ±6.5% ±$4.63 $66.21 – $75.47 $65.05 – $76.63 $61.01 – $80.67
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±5.12%
Average actual move
4.15%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 4
Median IV change
-23.53%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 05, 2026 ±6.33% +3.83% 0.61× 43.8% → 34.6%
August 05, 2025 ±4.42% +6.00% 1.36× —
May 06, 2025 ±5.16% +1.73% 0.33× 44.0% → 32.5%
February 04, 2025 ±4.60% -5.06% 1.10× 41.1% → 28.7%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →