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Apollo Global Management APO 117.27 -5.49 -4.47%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $116.98
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.5% ±$2.87 $114.12 – $119.85 $113.53 – $120.43 $110.83 – $123.14
2 sessions ±3.4% ±$3.99 $112.99 – $120.97 $112.15 – $121.81 $108.37 – $125.59
3 sessions ±4.3% ±$5.03 $111.95 – $122.01 $110.99 – $122.97 $106.28 – $127.69
1 week ±5.5% ±$6.39 $110.59 – $123.37 $109.17 – $124.80 $103.38 – $130.59
2 weeks ±6.7% ±$7.85 $109.13 – $124.83 $107.27 – $126.69 $100.24 – $133.72
3 weeks ±7.4% ±$8.68 $108.30 – $125.66 $106.18 – $127.78 $98.63 – $135.34
1 month ±8.8% ±$10.25 $106.73 – $127.23 $104.18 – $129.78 $95.25 – $138.72
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±5.67%
Average actual move
2.58%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 6
Median IV change
-23.98%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
November 03, 2026 ±5.73% -4.95% 0.86× 52.7% → 40.1%
August 04, 2026 ±5.99% +2.92% 0.49× 48.9% → 40.6%
May 06, 2026 ±5.49% -0.59% 0.11× —
August 05, 2025 ±5.32% +2.48% 0.47× 47.2% → 36.7%
May 02, 2025 ±5.29% -1.83% 0.35× 55.5% → 39.1%
February 04, 2025 ±6.22% -2.71% 0.44× 52.3% → 34.0%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →