ARW Moves

Arrow Electronics ARW 181.09 4.02 2.27%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $181.09

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.4% ±$4.38	$176.71 – $185.47	$175.82 – $186.36	$171.67 – $190.51
2 sessions	±3.4% ±$6.10	$174.99 – $187.19	$173.70 – $188.48	$167.92 – $194.26
3 sessions	±4.2% ±$7.68	$173.41 – $188.77	$171.93 – $190.25	$164.72 – $197.46
1 week	±5.4% ±$9.76	$171.33 – $190.85	$169.14 – $193.04	$160.28 – $201.90
2 weeks	±7.6% ±$13.71	$167.38 – $194.80	$164.14 – $198.04	$151.84 – $210.34
3 weeks	±8.7% ±$15.83	$165.26 – $196.92	$161.42 – $200.76	$147.64 – $214.54
1 month	±9.9% ±$18.02	$163.07 – $199.11	$158.60 – $203.58	$142.88 – $219.30

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±7.74%

Average actual move

1.05%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 1

Median IV change

-29.96%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026	±7.74%	-1.05%	0.14×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →