BTI Moves

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British American Tobacco p BTI 61.89 0.85 1.39%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 13 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 13, 2026 close · $61.84

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.6% ±$0.96	$60.88 – $62.80	$60.69 – $62.99	$59.79 – $63.89
2 sessions	±2.1% ±$1.33	$60.51 – $63.17	$60.23 – $63.45	$58.97 – $64.71
3 sessions	±2.7% ±$1.68	$60.16 – $63.52	$59.84 – $63.84	$58.27 – $65.41
1 week	±3.4% ±$2.13	$59.71 – $63.97	$59.24 – $64.44	$57.30 – $66.38
2 weeks	±4.2% ±$2.57	$59.27 – $64.41	$58.67 – $65.01	$56.37 – $67.31
3 weeks	±4.8% ±$2.98	$58.86 – $64.82	$58.13 – $65.55	$55.53 – $68.15
1 month	±5.5% ±$3.41	$58.43 – $65.25	$57.58 – $66.10	$54.60 – $69.08

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±4.84%

Average actual move

3.89%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 2

Median IV change

-3.56%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
February 12, 2026	±5.18%	+0.46%	0.09×	—
February 13, 2025	±4.50%	-7.32%	1.63×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →