CAH Moves

Cardinal Health CAH 271.72 3.9 1.46%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $271.57

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.3% ±$3.62	$267.96 – $275.19	$267.23 – $275.92	$263.81 – $279.34
2 sessions	±1.9% ±$5.03	$266.55 – $276.60	$265.46 – $277.69	$260.71 – $282.44
3 sessions	±2.3% ±$6.32	$265.25 – $277.90	$264.03 – $279.12	$258.08 – $285.07
1 week	±3.0% ±$8.06	$263.51 – $279.64	$261.72 – $281.43	$254.41 – $288.74
2 weeks	±4.2% ±$11.30	$260.28 – $282.87	$257.59 – $285.56	$247.46 – $295.69
3 weeks	±5.3% ±$14.40	$257.18 – $285.97	$253.68 – $289.47	$241.13 – $302.02
1 month	±6.0% ±$16.19	$255.39 – $287.76	$251.37 – $291.78	$237.25 – $305.90

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±5.51%

Average actual move

3.36%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 5

Median IV change

-31.04%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 11, 2026	±6.45%	+1.30%	0.20×	—
April 30, 2026	±6.80%	-4.90%	0.72×	46.8% → 30.6%
August 12, 2025	±4.46%	-7.21%	1.62×	—
May 01, 2025	±4.92%	+3.00%	0.61×	37.8% → 26.0%
January 30, 2025	±4.91%	+0.39%	0.08×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →