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CF Industries Holding CF 119.39 0.82 0.69%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $119.69
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.9% ±$2.29 $117.39 – $121.98 $116.93 – $122.44 $114.76 – $124.62
2 sessions ±2.7% ±$3.19 $116.49 – $122.88 $115.82 – $123.55 $112.79 – $126.58
3 sessions ±3.4% ±$4.02 $115.66 – $123.71 $114.89 – $124.49 $111.12 – $128.26
1 week ±4.3% ±$5.11 $114.58 – $124.80 $113.44 – $125.93 $108.79 – $130.58
2 weeks ±6.1% ±$7.25 $112.43 – $126.94 $110.71 – $128.66 $104.21 – $135.16
3 weeks ±7.3% ±$8.69 $111.00 – $128.38 $108.88 – $130.49 $101.31 – $138.06
1 month ±8.6% ±$10.27 $109.42 – $129.96 $106.87 – $132.50 $97.90 – $141.47
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±5.10%
Average actual move
3.32%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 6
Median IV change
-20.00%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
November 05, 2026 ±5.51% +6.17% 1.12× —
August 06, 2026 ±5.44% +0.02% 0.00× 48.8% → 41.2%
May 07, 2026 ±5.97% -0.90% 0.15× 61.8% → 52.7%
August 07, 2025 ±4.76% -7.80% 1.64× —
May 08, 2025 ±4.09% +0.78% 0.19× 40.2% → 29.6%
February 20, 2025 ±4.83% -4.24% 0.88× 42.9% → 32.4%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →