CG Moves

The Carlyle Group Inc CG 39.96 -2.79 -6.53%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $40.04

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.3% ±$0.90	$39.14 – $40.94	$38.95 – $41.13	$38.10 – $41.98
2 sessions	±3.1% ±$1.26	$38.78 – $41.30	$38.52 – $41.56	$37.33 – $42.75
3 sessions	±4.0% ±$1.58	$38.46 – $41.62	$38.15 – $41.93	$36.67 – $43.41
1 week	±5.0% ±$2.01	$38.03 – $42.05	$37.58 – $42.50	$35.76 – $44.32
2 weeks	±7.0% ±$2.82	$37.22 – $42.86	$36.55 – $43.53	$34.02 – $46.06
3 weeks	±8.3% ±$3.33	$36.71 – $43.37	$35.90 – $44.18	$33.00 – $47.08
1 month	±9.5% ±$3.80	$36.24 – $43.84	$35.29 – $44.79	$31.98 – $48.10

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±7.59%

Average actual move

3.79%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 4

Median IV change

-23.75%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026	±8.37%	-3.52%	0.42×	—
August 06, 2025	±7.99%	+4.66%	0.58×	—
May 08, 2025	±7.51%	+3.28%	0.44×	59.8% → 44.4%
February 11, 2025	±6.51%	-3.69%	0.57×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →