CIFR Moves

Cipher Digital Inc CIFR 6.54 0.99 17.93%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $6.54

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±6.7% ±$0.44	$6.10 – $6.98	$6.01 – $7.07	$5.60 – $7.48
2 sessions	±9.3% ±$0.61	$5.93 – $7.15	$5.80 – $7.28	$5.22 – $7.86
3 sessions	±11.8% ±$0.77	$5.77 – $7.31	$5.62 – $7.46	$4.90 – $8.18
1 week	±14.9% ±$0.98	$5.56 – $7.52	$5.34 – $7.74	$4.46 – $8.62
2 weeks	±19.7% ±$1.29	$5.25 – $7.83	$4.94 – $8.14	$3.79 – $9.29
3 weeks	±24.5% ±$1.60	$4.94 – $8.14	$4.54 – $8.54	$3.15 – $9.93
1 month	±28.8% ±$1.89	$4.65 – $8.43	$4.19 – $8.89	$2.54 – $10.54

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±15.05%

Average actual move

11.84%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 6

Median IV change

-0.95%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
November 02, 2026	±20.37%	-5.90%	0.29×	153.6% → 166.7%
August 04, 2026	±15.89%	-15.65%	0.98×	—
May 05, 2026	±12.74%	+23.53%	1.85×	114.7% → 121.9%
August 07, 2025	±9.79%	-6.53%	0.67×	93.5% → 89.6%
May 06, 2025	±14.77%	+2.01%	0.14×	122.9% → 109.4%
February 25, 2025	±16.72%	-17.42%	1.04×	141.4% → 140.0%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →