CMI Moves

Cummins Inc CMI 450.07 1.49 0.33%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $451.16

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.0% ±$8.93	$442.22 – $460.09	$440.42 – $461.90	$431.98 – $470.33
2 sessions	±2.8% ±$12.40	$438.75 – $463.56	$436.09 – $466.23	$424.36 – $477.96
3 sessions	±3.5% ±$15.65	$435.50 – $466.81	$432.48 – $469.84	$417.86 – $484.45
1 week	±4.4% ±$19.89	$431.26 – $471.05	$426.84 – $475.48	$408.79 – $493.52
2 weeks	±6.2% ±$27.88	$423.28 – $479.04	$416.64 – $485.67	$391.60 – $510.71
3 weeks	±7.2% ±$32.66	$418.49 – $483.82	$410.55 – $491.76	$382.18 – $520.14
1 month	±8.3% ±$37.53	$413.62 – $488.69	$404.33 – $497.99	$371.62 – $530.70

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±6.54%

Average actual move

2.27%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 3

Median IV change

-20.43%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 05, 2026	±7.54%	+2.76%	0.37×	—
August 05, 2025	±5.23%	+3.22%	0.62×	37.6% → 30.4%
May 05, 2025	±6.87%	+0.82%	0.12×	43.7% → 32.5%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →