DBD Moves

Diebold Nixdorf DBD 58.33 0.35 0.6%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $58.34

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.9% ±$1.09	$57.25 – $59.43	$57.03 – $59.65	$56.01 – $60.67
2 sessions	±2.6% ±$1.51	$56.83 – $59.85	$56.51 – $60.17	$55.08 – $61.60
3 sessions	±3.3% ±$1.90	$56.44 – $60.24	$56.07 – $60.61	$54.29 – $62.39
1 week	±4.1% ±$2.42	$55.92 – $60.76	$55.38 – $61.30	$53.19 – $63.49
2 weeks	±5.8% ±$3.39	$54.95 – $61.73	$54.15 – $62.53	$51.10 – $65.58
3 weeks	±7.2% ±$4.20	$54.14 – $62.54	$53.12 – $63.56	$49.46 – $67.22
1 month	±8.6% ±$5.01	$53.33 – $63.35	$52.09 – $64.59	$47.73 – $68.95

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±10.85%

Average actual move

5.57%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 2

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 06, 2025	±9.61%	+5.78%	0.60×	—
February 12, 2025	±12.10%	+5.36%	0.44×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →