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Duolingo DUOL 161.27 33.27 25.99%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $161.69
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±3.3% ±$5.25 $156.44 – $166.94 $155.37 – $168.01 $150.40 – $172.98
2 sessions ±4.5% ±$7.32 $154.37 – $169.01 $152.81 – $170.57 $145.91 – $177.47
3 sessions ±5.7% ±$9.22 $152.47 – $170.91 $150.70 – $172.68 $142.06 – $181.32
1 week ±7.2% ±$11.71 $149.98 – $173.40 $147.36 – $176.02 $136.74 – $186.64
2 weeks ±9.3% ±$15.10 $146.59 – $176.79 $143.01 – $180.37 $129.48 – $193.90
3 weeks ±10.7% ±$17.24 $144.45 – $178.93 $140.27 – $183.11 $125.26 – $198.12
1 month ±12.5% ±$20.16 $141.53 – $181.85 $136.53 – $186.85 $118.96 – $204.42
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±15.89%
Average actual move
13.69%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 4
Median IV change
-35.68%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
November 04, 2026 ±14.37% +25.99% 1.81× —
August 06, 2026 ±13.04% -9.41% 0.72× —
May 05, 2026 ±18.69% -5.62% 0.30× —
August 07, 2025 ±17.46% +13.75% 0.79× 140.7% → 86.7%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →