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Ecolab ECL 315.01 10.33 3.39%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $313.60
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.1% ±$3.58 $310.02 – $317.18 $309.34 – $317.86 $305.95 – $321.25
2 sessions ±1.6% ±$4.95 $308.65 – $318.55 $307.58 – $319.62 $302.91 – $324.29
3 sessions ±2.0% ±$6.24 $307.36 – $319.84 $306.17 – $321.03 $300.30 – $326.90
1 week ±2.5% ±$7.93 $305.67 – $321.53 $303.91 – $323.29 $296.70 – $330.50
2 weeks ±3.5% ±$11.13 $302.47 – $324.73 $299.83 – $327.37 $289.86 – $337.34
3 weeks ±4.4% ±$13.70 $299.90 – $327.30 $296.57 – $330.63 $284.65 – $342.55
1 month ±5.2% ±$16.21 $297.39 – $329.81 $293.37 – $333.83 $279.26 – $347.94
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±4.95%
Average actual move
5.10%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 2
Median IV change
-17.07%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
February 10, 2026 ±4.88% +3.98% 0.82× —
February 11, 2025 ±5.02% +6.22% 1.24× 34.3% → 28.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →