FCX Moves

Freeport-McMoran Inc FCX 57.9 -4.7 -7.51%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $58.16

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.7% ±$1.58	$56.58 – $59.74	$56.26 – $60.06	$54.77 – $61.55
2 sessions	±3.8% ±$2.20	$55.96 – $60.36	$55.50 – $60.82	$53.42 – $62.90
3 sessions	±4.8% ±$2.77	$55.39 – $60.93	$54.86 – $61.46	$52.27 – $64.05
1 week	±6.0% ±$3.52	$54.64 – $61.68	$53.86 – $62.46	$50.67 – $65.65
2 weeks	±8.2% ±$4.75	$53.41 – $62.91	$52.29 – $64.03	$48.03 – $68.29
3 weeks	±9.3% ±$5.39	$52.77 – $63.55	$51.46 – $64.86	$46.78 – $69.54
1 month	±11.6% ±$6.73	$51.43 – $64.89	$49.76 – $66.56	$43.88 – $72.44

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±4.90%

Average actual move

4.45%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 6

Median IV change

-13.48%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
October 27, 2026	±5.29%	+1.21%	0.23×	53.3% → 45.6%
July 23, 2026	±5.75%	-2.31%	0.40×	—
April 23, 2026	±4.72%	-12.62%	2.67×	—
July 23, 2025	±4.42%	-2.10%	0.47×	40.0% → 33.9%
April 24, 2025	±4.87%	+6.93%	1.42×	55.2% → 49.8%
January 23, 2025	±4.32%	-1.51%	0.35×	39.2% → 34.3%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →