GPN Moves

Global Payments GPN 97.4 2.42 2.55%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $97.40

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.7% ±$1.68	$95.72 – $99.08	$95.39 – $99.41	$93.81 – $100.99
2 sessions	±2.4% ±$2.33	$95.07 – $99.73	$94.58 – $100.22	$92.38 – $102.42
3 sessions	±3.0% ±$2.93	$94.47 – $100.33	$93.90 – $100.90	$91.16 – $103.64
1 week	±3.8% ±$3.72	$93.68 – $101.12	$92.84 – $101.96	$89.46 – $105.34
2 weeks	±5.4% ±$5.23	$92.17 – $102.63	$90.93 – $103.87	$86.25 – $108.55
3 weeks	±6.7% ±$6.48	$90.92 – $103.88	$89.35 – $105.45	$83.73 – $111.07
1 month	±7.9% ±$7.71	$89.69 – $105.11	$87.78 – $107.02	$81.06 – $113.74

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±8.77%

Average actual move

6.03%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 5

Median IV change

-37.78%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 06, 2026	±10.36%	+0.23%	0.02×	77.5% → 47.1%
February 18, 2026	±8.99%	+16.47%	1.83×	—
August 06, 2025	±8.42%	+9.09%	1.08×	62.2% → 39.5%
May 06, 2025	±7.70%	+0.04%	0.00×	55.1% → 37.7%
February 13, 2025	±8.36%	-4.32%	0.52×	65.8% → 33.0%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →