HPQ Moves

HP Inc HPQ 29.44 -0.49 -1.64%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $29.57

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.1% ±$0.63	$28.95 – $30.20	$28.82 – $30.33	$28.22 – $30.93
2 sessions	±3.0% ±$0.88	$28.70 – $30.45	$28.51 – $30.64	$27.69 – $31.46
3 sessions	±3.7% ±$1.11	$28.47 – $30.68	$28.26 – $30.89	$27.23 – $31.92
1 week	±4.7% ±$1.41	$28.17 – $30.98	$27.86 – $31.29	$26.59 – $32.56
2 weeks	±6.7% ±$1.96	$27.61 – $31.54	$27.14 – $32.01	$25.38 – $33.77
3 weeks Earnings	±13.0% ±$3.86	$25.72 – $33.43	$24.80 – $34.35	$21.48 – $37.67
1 month Earnings	±14.1% ±$4.15	$25.42 – $33.73	$24.42 – $34.73	$20.84 – $38.31

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. HPQ reports in 14 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±7.93%

Average actual move

5.13%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 7

Median IV change

-32.55%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 27, 2026	±8.91%	-2.92%	0.33×	70.1% → 48.6%
May 28, 2026	±9.20%	-1.88%	0.20×	79.0% → 51.7%
February 25, 2026	±9.51%	+0.05%	0.01×	—
August 28, 2025	±6.62%	+4.57%	0.69×	48.3% → 32.6%
May 29, 2025	±6.93%	-8.27%	1.19×	52.1% → 38.5%
February 28, 2025	±6.93%	-6.82%	0.98×	51.4% → 34.4%
November 27, 2024	±7.43%	-11.36%	1.53×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →