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Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM 200.9 -12.66 -5.93%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $204.51
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.6% ±$5.24 $199.27 – $209.75 $198.21 – $210.81 $193.26 – $215.76
2 sessions ±3.6% ±$7.28 $197.23 – $211.79 $195.68 – $213.34 $188.78 – $220.24
3 sessions ±4.5% ±$9.18 $195.33 – $213.69 $193.55 – $215.47 $184.96 – $224.06
1 week ±5.7% ±$11.68 $192.83 – $216.19 $190.24 – $218.78 $179.64 – $229.38
2 weeks ±7.5% ±$15.42 $189.09 – $219.93 $185.45 – $223.57 $171.62 – $237.40
3 weeks ±8.7% ±$17.77 $186.74 – $222.28 $182.40 – $226.62 $166.94 – $242.08
1 month ±9.9% ±$20.25 $184.26 – $224.76 $179.23 – $229.79 $161.58 – $247.44
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±6.90%
Average actual move
4.27%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 6
Median IV change
-24.82%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
October 29, 2026 ±6.69% +5.51% 0.82× —
August 06, 2026 ±6.06% -0.58% 0.10× —
May 07, 2026 ±6.82% +6.28% 0.92× 49.9% → 36.3%
July 31, 2025 ±6.35% -6.44% 1.01× 47.2% → 39.3%
May 01, 2025 ±7.72% +6.82% 0.88× 54.5% → 42.4%
February 13, 2025 ±7.77% -0.01% 0.00× 52.6% → 26.4%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →