International Business Machines Corporation IBM 254.32 4.28 1.71%
Expected move
November 04, 2026 close · $254.45| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±1.5% ±$3.87 | $250.58 – $258.32 | $249.82 – $259.08 | $246.15 – $262.75 |
| 2 sessions | ±2.1% ±$5.37 | $249.08 – $259.82 | $247.94 – $260.96 | $242.85 – $266.05 |
| 3 sessions | ±2.7% ±$6.84 | $247.61 – $261.29 | $246.28 – $262.62 | $239.90 – $269.00 |
| 1 week | ±3.4% ±$8.75 | $245.70 – $263.20 | $243.74 – $265.16 | $235.77 – $273.13 |
| 2 weeks | ±4.8% ±$12.16 | $242.29 – $266.61 | $239.41 – $269.49 | $228.52 – $280.38 |
| 3 weeks | ±5.8% ±$14.71 | $239.74 – $269.16 | $236.16 – $272.74 | $223.38 – $285.52 |
| 1 month | ±6.9% ±$17.66 | $236.79 – $272.11 | $232.39 – $276.51 | $216.99 – $291.91 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±6.75%
Average actual move
5.89%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 7
Median IV change
-26.32%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22, 2026 | ±7.43% | +0.26% | 0.03× | — |
| July 23, 2026 | ±6.73% | +0.43% | 0.06× | 57.0% → 41.8% |
| April 23, 2026 | ±6.85% | -8.25% | 1.20× | — |
| January 29, 2026 | ±6.37% | +5.13% | 0.80× | — |
| July 24, 2025 | ±6.18% | -7.62% | 1.23× | 42.9% → 31.7% |
| April 24, 2025 | ±7.00% | -6.58% | 0.94× | — |
| January 30, 2025 | ±6.67% | +12.96% | 1.94× | — |