IP Moves

International Paper Co IP 34.53 0.29 0.85%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $34.53

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.1% ±$0.71	$33.82 – $35.24	$33.67 – $35.39	$33.00 – $36.06
2 sessions	±2.9% ±$0.99	$33.54 – $35.52	$33.33 – $35.73	$32.39 – $36.67
3 sessions	±3.6% ±$1.25	$33.28 – $35.78	$33.04 – $36.02	$31.87 – $37.19
1 week	±4.6% ±$1.58	$32.95 – $36.11	$32.59 – $36.47	$31.15 – $37.91
2 weeks	±6.4% ±$2.22	$32.31 – $36.75	$31.78 – $37.28	$29.78 – $39.28
3 weeks	±7.1% ±$2.44	$32.09 – $36.97	$31.49 – $37.57	$29.36 – $39.70
1 month	±8.1% ±$2.80	$31.73 – $37.33	$31.03 – $38.03	$28.58 – $40.48

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±6.62%

Average actual move

5.86%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 6

Median IV change

-26.56%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
July 30, 2026	±7.04%	+1.20%	0.17×	—
April 30, 2026	±8.34%	-9.41%	1.13×	—
January 29, 2026	±7.95%	-6.00%	0.75×	—
July 31, 2025	±5.64%	-12.85%	2.28×	—
April 30, 2025	±5.35%	-4.09%	0.76×	44.8% → 33.3%
January 30, 2025	±5.39%	-1.60%	0.30×	37.9% → 27.5%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →