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Lumen Technologies LUMN 4.47 -0.28 -5.89%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $4.61
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings ±12.2% ±$0.56 $4.05 – $5.17 $3.91 – $5.31 $3.39 – $5.83
2 sessions Earnings ±13.0% ±$0.60 $4.01 – $5.21 $3.86 – $5.36 $3.31 – $5.91
3 sessions Earnings ±13.8% ±$0.64 $3.97 – $5.25 $3.83 – $5.39 $3.25 – $5.97
1 week Earnings ±14.4% ±$0.67 $3.94 – $5.28 $3.78 – $5.44 $3.21 – $6.01
2 weeks Earnings ±15.6% ±$0.72 $3.89 – $5.33 $3.72 – $5.50 $3.09 – $6.13
3 weeks Earnings ±16.6% ±$0.77 $3.84 – $5.38 $3.66 – $5.56 $3.00 – $6.22
1 month Earnings ±17.7% ±$0.82 $3.79 – $5.43 $3.60 – $5.62 $2.89 – $6.33
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. LUMN reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±14.69%
Average actual move
10.45%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 6
Median IV change
-20.05%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 05, 2026 ±14.08% -9.39% 0.67× —
May 06, 2026 ±13.60% +6.28% 0.46× 101.1% → 80.8%
February 04, 2026 ±13.00% -21.63% 1.66× —
August 01, 2025 ±13.26% -16.63% 1.25× —
May 02, 2025 ±13.07% +7.39% 0.57× 109.8% → 94.3%
February 05, 2025 ±21.13% -1.39% 0.07× 144.7% → 82.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →