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Macy's Inc M 23.08 -1.11 -4.59%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $23.08
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.0% ±$0.47 $22.61 – $23.55 $22.51 – $23.65 $22.06 – $24.10
2 sessions ±2.9% ±$0.66 $22.42 – $23.74 $22.28 – $23.88 $21.66 – $24.50
3 sessions ±3.6% ±$0.83 $22.25 – $23.91 $22.09 – $24.07 $21.32 – $24.84
1 week ±4.6% ±$1.05 $22.03 – $24.13 $21.79 – $24.37 $20.84 – $25.32
2 weeks ±6.4% ±$1.48 $21.60 – $24.56 $21.25 – $24.91 $19.93 – $26.23
3 weeks ±7.9% ±$1.83 $21.25 – $24.91 $20.80 – $25.36 $19.21 – $26.95
1 month Earnings ±11.6% ±$2.67 $20.41 – $25.75 $19.77 – $26.39 $17.47 – $28.69
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. M reports in 17 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±9.37%
Average actual move
4.65%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 7
Median IV change
-29.37%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
September 10, 2026 ±8.14% -4.70% 0.58× —
June 03, 2026 ±9.07% +0.60% 0.07× —
March 18, 2026 ±11.73% +4.73% 0.40× —
September 03, 2025 ±8.45% +20.68% 2.45× —
May 28, 2025 ±8.89% -0.33% 0.04× —
March 06, 2025 ±9.50% -0.68% 0.07× —
December 11, 2024 ±9.78% -0.84% 0.09× 57.4% → 40.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →