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MARA Holdings MARA 6.87 -0.29 -4.05%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $6.90
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±4.2% ±$0.29 $6.61 – $7.19 $6.55 – $7.25 $6.27 – $7.53
2 sessions ±5.9% ±$0.41 $6.49 – $7.31 $6.41 – $7.39 $6.02 – $7.78
3 sessions ±7.4% ±$0.51 $6.39 – $7.41 $6.29 – $7.51 $5.81 – $7.99
1 week Earnings ±13.6% ±$0.94 $5.96 – $7.84 $5.73 – $8.07 $4.93 – $8.87
2 weeks Earnings ±17.0% ±$1.17 $5.73 – $8.07 $5.45 – $8.35 $4.43 – $9.37
3 weeks Earnings ±19.7% ±$1.36 $5.54 – $8.26 $5.22 – $8.58 $4.05 – $9.75
1 month Earnings ±22.4% ±$1.54 $5.36 – $8.44 $4.98 – $8.82 $3.65 – $10.15
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. MARA reports in 4 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±10.00%
Average actual move
6.59%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 7
Median IV change
-9.33%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 07, 2026 ±7.65% -5.26% 0.69× 99.3% → 80.7%
May 12, 2026 ±10.94% -5.00% 0.46× —
February 27, 2026 ±9.76% +5.80% 0.59× —
July 30, 2025 ±8.34% -0.36% 0.04× 78.7% → 70.3%
May 09, 2025 ±6.47% +10.29% 1.59× 90.5% → 82.3%
February 27, 2025 ±11.16% +5.46% 0.49× 113.4% → 104.6%
November 13, 2024 ±15.64% -13.99% 0.89× 143.2% → 129.9%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →