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MPLX LP MPLX 55.91 -0.64 -1.13%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $55.91
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.0% ±$0.56 $55.35 – $56.47 $55.23 – $56.59 $54.70 – $57.12
2 sessions ±1.4% ±$0.78 $55.13 – $56.69 $54.96 – $56.86 $54.22 – $57.60
3 sessions ±1.8% ±$0.98 $54.93 – $56.89 $54.74 – $57.08 $53.81 – $58.01
1 week ±2.2% ±$1.25 $54.66 – $57.16 $54.38 – $57.44 $53.24 – $58.58
2 weeks ±3.1% ±$1.76 $54.15 – $57.67 $53.74 – $58.08 $52.16 – $59.66
3 weeks ±3.6% ±$2.00 $53.91 – $57.91 $53.42 – $58.40 $51.68 – $60.14
1 month ±4.0% ±$2.25 $53.66 – $58.16 $53.10 – $58.72 $51.14 – $60.68
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±5.29%
Average actual move
2.60%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 3
Median IV change
-16.79%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 05, 2026 ±4.99% -2.64% 0.53× —
August 05, 2025 ±6.50% -3.51% 0.54× —
May 06, 2025 ±4.39% -1.66% 0.38× 30.6% → 24.3%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →