Marvell Technology MRVL 159.8 -12.17 -7.08% Regime: Trend Down (95%)
Expected move
November 04, 2026 close · $158.70| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±2.8% ±$4.41 | $154.29 – $163.11 | $153.40 – $164.00 | $149.22 – $168.17 |
| 2 sessions | ±3.9% ±$6.14 | $152.56 – $164.84 | $151.26 – $166.14 | $145.45 – $171.95 |
| 3 sessions | ±4.9% ±$7.73 | $150.97 – $166.43 | $149.46 – $167.94 | $142.23 – $175.17 |
| 1 week | ±6.2% ±$9.84 | $148.86 – $168.54 | $146.67 – $170.73 | $137.75 – $179.65 |
| 2 weeks | ±8.7% ±$13.79 | $144.91 – $172.49 | $141.64 – $175.76 | $129.26 – $188.14 |
| 3 weeks | ±10.8% ±$17.09 | $141.61 – $175.79 | $137.45 – $179.95 | $122.60 – $194.80 |
| 1 month Earnings | ±16.8% ±$26.69 | $132.01 – $185.39 | $125.58 – $191.82 | $102.58 – $214.82 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±10.62%
Average actual move
13.42%
Beyond the implied move
4 / 6
Median IV change
-19.31%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 28, 2026 | ±10.11% | -10.28% | 1.02× | 86.9% → 58.1% |
| May 28, 2026 | ±13.12% | +3.09% | 0.24× | — |
| August 29, 2025 | ±9.42% | -18.60% | 1.97× | 73.1% → 61.1% |
| May 30, 2025 | ±10.43% | -5.55% | 0.53× | 85.4% → 53.4% |
| March 06, 2025 | ±11.57% | -19.81% | 1.71× | 90.1% → 72.7% |
| December 04, 2024 | ±9.10% | +23.19% | 2.55× | 63.6% → 56.1% |