MWA Moves

Mueller Water Products MWA 24.04 0.47 1.99%

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Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $24.04

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.8% ±$0.43	$23.61 – $24.47	$23.53 – $24.55	$23.12 – $24.96
2 sessions	±2.5% ±$0.60	$23.44 – $24.64	$23.32 – $24.76	$22.75 – $25.33
3 sessions	±3.1% ±$0.75	$23.29 – $24.79	$23.14 – $24.94	$22.44 – $25.64
1 week	±4.0% ±$0.95	$23.09 – $24.99	$22.87 – $25.21	$22.01 – $26.07
2 weeks	±5.6% ±$1.34	$22.70 – $25.38	$22.38 – $25.70	$21.18 – $26.90
3 weeks	±6.9% ±$1.66	$22.38 – $25.70	$21.98 – $26.10	$20.53 – $27.55
1 month	±8.2% ±$1.98	$22.06 – $26.02	$21.57 – $26.51	$19.85 – $28.23

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. MWA reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±9.61%

Average actual move

5.26%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 1

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 05, 2025	±9.61%	+5.26%	0.55×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →