Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd NCLH 17.92 0.16 0.9%
Expected move
November 06, 2026 close · $17.83| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±2.3% ±$0.40 | $17.43 – $18.23 | $17.34 – $18.32 | $16.96 – $18.70 |
| 2 sessions | ±3.2% ±$0.56 | $17.27 – $18.39 | $17.15 – $18.51 | $16.62 – $19.04 |
| 3 sessions | ±4.0% ±$0.71 | $17.12 – $18.54 | $16.98 – $18.68 | $16.32 – $19.34 |
| 1 week | ±5.1% ±$0.90 | $16.93 – $18.73 | $16.73 – $18.93 | $15.91 – $19.75 |
| 2 weeks | ±7.2% ±$1.29 | $16.54 – $19.12 | $16.23 – $19.43 | $15.08 – $20.58 |
| 3 weeks | ±8.6% ±$1.53 | $16.30 – $19.36 | $15.93 – $19.73 | $14.60 – $21.06 |
| 1 month | ±10.0% ±$1.78 | $16.05 – $19.61 | $15.61 – $20.05 | $14.06 – $21.60 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±8.14%
Average actual move
9.23%
Beyond the implied move
5 / 7
Median IV change
-20.05%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29, 2026 | ±7.63% | +13.45% | 1.76× | — |
| July 30, 2026 | ±7.33% | -9.78% | 1.34× | — |
| May 04, 2026 | ±9.46% | -8.56% | 0.90× | 72.0% → 61.3% |
| March 02, 2026 | ±10.23% | -10.53% | 1.03× | — |
| July 31, 2025 | ±7.37% | +9.23% | 1.25× | 57.5% → 44.2% |
| April 30, 2025 | ±7.19% | -7.77% | 1.08× | 62.2% → 51.5% |
| February 27, 2025 | ±7.80% | -5.31% | 0.68× | 66.2% → 51.0% |