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Oklo Inc OKLO 22.12 -1.37 -5.83%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $22.15
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±3.7% ±$0.82 $21.33 – $22.97 $21.17 – $23.13 $20.40 – $23.90
2 sessions Earnings ±10.2% ±$2.25 $19.90 – $24.40 $19.35 – $24.95 $17.28 – $27.02
3 sessions Earnings ±11.2% ±$2.49 $19.66 – $24.64 $19.08 – $25.22 $16.81 – $27.49
1 week Earnings ±12.7% ±$2.81 $19.34 – $24.96 $18.66 – $25.64 $16.25 – $28.05
2 weeks Earnings ±15.4% ±$3.42 $18.73 – $25.57 $17.92 – $26.38 $14.94 – $29.36
3 weeks Earnings ±17.7% ±$3.92 $18.23 – $26.07 $17.30 – $27.00 $13.92 – $30.38
1 month Earnings ±20.0% ±$4.43 $17.72 – $26.58 $16.66 – $27.64 $12.84 – $31.46
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. OKLO reports in 2 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±12.34%
Average actual move
11.75%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 7
Median IV change
-17.22%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 07, 2026 ±8.54% +14.77% 1.73× —
May 13, 2026 ±10.87% -5.39% 0.50× —
March 18, 2026 ±10.94% -6.33% 0.58× —
August 12, 2025 ±12.73% +9.20% 0.72× 117.6% → 97.6%
May 14, 2025 ±12.75% +15.55% 1.22× 123.7% → 107.3%
March 25, 2025 ±14.91% -6.41% 0.43× 136.1% → 107.3%
November 15, 2024 ±15.60% -24.62% 1.58× 184.5% → 152.4%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →