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Okta OKTA 191.05 1.37 0.72%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $188.39
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±3.0% ±$5.75 $182.64 – $194.14 $181.49 – $195.29 $176.07 – $200.71
2 sessions ±4.2% ±$7.99 $180.40 – $196.38 $178.71 – $198.07 $171.15 – $205.63
3 sessions ±5.3% ±$10.06 $178.33 – $198.45 $176.39 – $200.39 $166.97 – $209.81
1 week ±6.8% ±$12.79 $175.60 – $201.18 $172.75 – $204.03 $161.15 – $215.63
2 weeks ±9.5% ±$17.93 $170.46 – $206.32 $166.20 – $210.58 $150.11 – $226.67
3 weeks ±11.8% ±$22.23 $166.16 – $210.62 $160.75 – $216.03 $141.42 – $235.36
1 month Earnings ±19.8% ±$37.38 $151.01 – $225.77 $142.01 – $234.77 $109.81 – $266.97
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. OKTA reports in 19 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±11.95%
Average actual move
16.74%
Beyond the implied move
4 / 7
Median IV change
-51.93%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 27, 2026 ±11.01% +28.63% 2.60× —
May 29, 2026 ±13.09% +30.14% 2.30× —
March 05, 2026 ±11.05% +11.03% 1.00× —
August 27, 2025 ±12.78% +1.61% 0.13× 82.0% → 39.4%
May 28, 2025 ±10.48% -16.16% 1.54× 69.2% → 65.8%
March 04, 2025 ±12.36% +24.27% 1.96× —
December 04, 2024 ±12.88% +5.38% 0.42× 80.3% → 33.9%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →