PANW Moves

Palo Alto Networks PANW 348.04 -2.16 -0.62%

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Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $351.07

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.5% ±$8.71	$342.36 – $359.78	$340.61 – $361.53	$332.39 – $369.75
2 sessions	±3.5% ±$12.11	$338.96 – $363.18	$336.40 – $365.74	$324.99 – $377.15
3 sessions	±4.3% ±$15.24	$335.83 – $366.31	$332.88 – $369.26	$318.63 – $383.51
1 week	±5.5% ±$19.38	$331.69 – $370.45	$327.37 – $374.77	$309.82 – $392.32
2 weeks	±7.7% ±$27.17	$323.90 – $378.24	$317.47 – $384.67	$293.11 – $409.03
3 weeks Earnings	±13.6% ±$47.85	$303.22 – $398.92	$291.81 – $410.33	$250.49 – $451.65
1 month Earnings	±15.0% ±$52.56	$298.51 – $403.63	$285.84 – $416.30	$240.59 – $461.55

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. PANW reports in 11 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±8.95%

Average actual move

4.49%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 6

Median IV change

-38.13%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
September 02, 2026	±9.67%	-9.28%	0.96×	—
June 03, 2026	±12.76%	-5.64%	0.44×	91.8% → 61.6%
August 19, 2025	±8.02%	+3.06%	0.38×	63.1% → 35.7%
May 21, 2025	±7.51%	-6.80%	0.91×	50.9% → 35.4%
February 14, 2025	±7.70%	-0.92%	0.12×	57.1% → 29.5%
November 21, 2024	±8.02%	+1.22%	0.15×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →