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PDD Holdings Inc PDD 83.03 -0.92 -1.1%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $83.10
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.6% ±$1.33 $81.77 – $84.43 $81.50 – $84.69 $80.24 – $85.96
2 sessions ±2.2% ±$1.85 $81.24 – $84.95 $80.85 – $85.34 $79.11 – $87.09
3 sessions ±2.8% ±$2.32 $80.77 – $85.42 $80.31 – $85.88 $78.14 – $88.06
1 week ±3.6% ±$2.95 $80.14 – $86.05 $79.47 – $86.72 $76.79 – $89.40
2 weeks Earnings ±7.5% ±$6.23 $76.86 – $89.33 $75.39 – $90.80 $69.95 – $96.24
3 weeks Earnings ±8.4% ±$6.95 $76.14 – $90.05 $74.48 – $91.71 $68.47 – $97.72
1 month Earnings ±9.3% ±$7.71 $75.39 – $90.81 $73.52 – $92.67 $66.88 – $99.32
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. PDD reports in 7 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±8.12%
Average actual move
6.51%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 7
Median IV change
-32.20%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 24, 2026 ±7.92% -1.48% 0.19× 56.2% → 37.0%
May 27, 2026 ±6.73% -10.38% 1.54× —
March 25, 2026 ±7.76% +4.61% 0.59× —
August 25, 2025 ±7.91% +0.87% 0.11× 54.7% → 36.4%
May 27, 2025 ±8.30% -13.64% 1.64× 59.6% → 63.5%
March 20, 2025 ±9.09% +3.97% 0.44× 67.1% → 45.5%
November 21, 2024 ±9.12% -10.64% 1.17× 65.7% → 46.0%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →