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Royal Caribbean Group RCL 333.15 19.98 6.38%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $334.93
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.0% ±$6.87 $328.07 – $341.80 $326.66 – $343.20 $320.16 – $349.70
2 sessions ±2.9% ±$9.58 $325.35 – $344.51 $323.34 – $346.52 $314.30 – $355.56
3 sessions ±3.4% ±$11.52 $323.41 – $346.45 $321.17 – $348.70 $310.38 – $359.48
1 week ±4.2% ±$14.10 $320.83 – $349.03 $317.68 – $352.18 $304.86 – $365.01
2 weeks ±5.8% ±$19.50 $315.44 – $354.43 $310.82 – $359.05 $293.33 – $376.53
3 weeks ±7.2% ±$23.95 $310.98 – $358.88 $305.19 – $364.67 $284.36 – $385.51
1 month ±8.6% ±$28.64 $306.30 – $363.57 $299.19 – $370.67 $274.24 – $395.62
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±7.23%
Average actual move
7.26%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 7
Median IV change
-23.84%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
October 27, 2026 ±7.06% +5.46% 0.77× —
July 28, 2026 ±8.31% +5.72% 0.69× —
April 30, 2026 ±8.94% +3.84% 0.43× —
January 29, 2026 ±7.35% +18.65% 2.54× —
July 29, 2025 ±5.45% -5.01% 0.92× 46.0% → 34.8%
April 29, 2025 ±6.88% +0.12% 0.02× 59.2% → 45.1%
January 28, 2025 ±6.63% +12.00% 1.81× 55.4% → 43.9%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →