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SAP SE SAP 240.04 9.73 4.22%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $240.04
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.4% ±$3.36 $236.68 – $243.40 $235.98 – $244.10 $232.81 – $247.27
2 sessions ±2.0% ±$4.68 $235.36 – $244.72 $234.35 – $245.73 $229.93 – $250.15
3 sessions ±2.5% ±$5.90 $234.14 – $245.94 $233.01 – $247.07 $227.49 – $252.59
1 week ±3.1% ±$7.49 $232.55 – $247.53 $230.87 – $249.21 $224.08 – $256.00
2 weeks ±4.4% ±$10.51 $229.53 – $250.55 $227.03 – $253.05 $217.60 – $262.48
3 weeks ±5.7% ±$13.71 $226.33 – $253.75 $223.02 – $257.06 $211.09 – $268.99
1 month ±6.6% ±$15.82 $224.22 – $255.86 $220.31 – $259.77 $206.53 – $273.55
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±7.31%
Average actual move
8.81%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 4
Median IV change
-19.04%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
October 22, 2026 ±6.23% +3.38% 0.54× —
July 24, 2026 ±8.06% +9.30% 1.15× —
April 24, 2026 ±8.61% +7.36% 0.85× —
January 29, 2026 ±6.33% -15.20% 2.40× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →