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The J SJM 130.55 -2.7 -2.03%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $131.01
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.1% ±$1.49 $129.52 – $132.50 $129.22 – $132.80 $127.80 – $134.22
2 sessions ±1.6% ±$2.08 $128.93 – $133.09 $128.49 – $133.53 $126.53 – $135.49
3 sessions ±2.0% ±$2.62 $128.39 – $133.63 $127.88 – $134.14 $125.43 – $136.59
1 week ±2.5% ±$3.33 $127.68 – $134.34 $126.94 – $135.08 $123.92 – $138.10
2 weeks ±3.6% ±$4.68 $126.33 – $135.69 $125.23 – $136.79 $121.04 – $140.98
3 weeks Earnings ±7.6% ±$10.00 $121.01 – $141.01 $118.64 – $143.38 $110.01 – $152.01
1 month Earnings ±8.1% ±$10.64 $120.37 – $141.65 $117.80 – $144.22 $108.63 – $153.39
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. SJM reports in 12 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±6.25%
Average actual move
13.01%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 2
Median IV change
-26.82%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
June 09, 2026 ±7.30% +10.44% 1.43× —
June 10, 2025 ±5.21% -15.59% 2.99× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →