TYL Moves

Tyler Technologies TYL 423.2 18.96 4.69%

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Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $423.28

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.9% ±$8.13	$415.15 – $431.41	$413.54 – $433.02	$405.88 – $440.68
2 sessions	±2.7% ±$11.30	$411.98 – $434.58	$409.61 – $436.95	$398.94 – $447.62
3 sessions	±3.4% ±$14.22	$409.06 – $437.50	$406.31 – $440.25	$393.02 – $453.54
1 week	±4.3% ±$18.07	$405.21 – $441.35	$401.18 – $445.38	$384.80 – $461.76
2 weeks	±6.0% ±$25.35	$397.93 – $448.63	$391.91 – $454.65	$369.18 – $477.38
3 weeks	±7.2% ±$30.35	$392.93 – $453.63	$385.57 – $460.99	$359.20 – $487.36
1 month	±8.2% ±$34.62	$388.66 – $457.90	$380.06 – $466.50	$349.84 – $496.72

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±5.37%

Average actual move

5.98%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 1

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
February 13, 2025	±5.37%	+5.98%	1.11×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →