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Argan AGX 290.66 -57.58 -16.53%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $290.62
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±3.5% ±$10.11 $280.51 – $300.73 $278.47 – $302.77 $268.91 – $312.33
2 sessions ±4.8% ±$14.07 $276.55 – $304.69 $273.56 – $307.68 $260.28 – $320.96
3 sessions ±6.1% ±$17.73 $272.89 – $308.35 $269.49 – $311.75 $252.90 – $328.34
1 week ±7.8% ±$22.52 $268.10 – $313.14 $263.07 – $318.17 $242.64 – $338.60
2 weeks ±10.9% ±$31.59 $259.03 – $322.21 $251.53 – $329.71 $223.20 – $358.04
3 weeks ±13.7% ±$39.87 $250.75 – $330.49 $241.04 – $340.20 $206.34 – $374.90
1 month ±16.7% ±$48.48 $242.14 – $339.10 $230.11 – $351.13 $187.83 – $393.41
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±17.35%
Average actual move
0.77%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 1
Median IV change
-33.31%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
June 05, 2026 ±17.35% +0.77% 0.04× 111.4% → 75.6%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →