ALK Moves

Alaska Air Group ALK 40.0 3.22 8.75%

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Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $40.00

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.4% ±$0.96	$39.04 – $40.96	$38.84 – $41.16	$37.94 – $42.06
2 sessions	±3.4% ±$1.34	$38.66 – $41.34	$38.38 – $41.62	$37.11 – $42.89
3 sessions	±4.2% ±$1.68	$38.32 – $41.68	$37.99 – $42.01	$36.41 – $43.59
1 week	±5.4% ±$2.14	$37.86 – $42.14	$37.38 – $42.62	$35.44 – $44.56
2 weeks	±7.5% ±$3.01	$36.99 – $43.01	$36.28 – $43.72	$33.58 – $46.42
3 weeks	±9.2% ±$3.69	$36.31 – $43.69	$35.41 – $44.59	$32.20 – $47.80
1 month	±10.9% ±$4.36	$35.64 – $44.36	$34.56 – $45.44	$30.76 – $49.24

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

No completed report with a comparable pre-report straddle.