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Applied Digital Corporation Common Stock APLD 17.91 1.23 7.37%
Expected move
November 11, 2026 close · $17.95| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±4.2% ±$0.76 | $17.20 – $18.71 | $17.05 – $18.86 | $16.34 – $19.57 |
| 2 sessions | ±5.8% ±$1.05 | $16.91 – $19.00 | $16.69 – $19.22 | $15.70 – $20.21 |
| 3 sessions | ±7.3% ±$1.32 | $16.64 – $19.27 | $16.39 – $19.52 | $15.15 – $20.76 |
| 1 week | ±9.3% ±$1.68 | $16.28 – $19.63 | $15.91 – $20.00 | $14.39 – $21.52 |
| 2 weeks | ±13.1% ±$2.35 | $15.61 – $20.30 | $15.05 – $20.86 | $12.95 – $22.96 |
| 3 weeks | ±16.2% ±$2.91 | $15.05 – $20.86 | $14.34 – $21.57 | $11.82 – $24.09 |
| 1 month | ±19.3% ±$3.46 | $14.50 – $21.41 | $13.64 – $22.27 | $10.62 – $25.29 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±14.78%
Average actual move
14.35%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 6
Median IV change
-17.27%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 08, 2026 | ±10.75% | +0.17% | 0.02× | 95.9% → 75.7% |
| July 28, 2026 | ±14.90% | +0.93% | 0.06× | 137.2% → 113.5% |
| October 10, 2025 | ±14.95% | +16.05% | 1.07× | 155.6% → 140.9% |
| July 31, 2025 | ±11.86% | +31.01% | 2.61× | 113.5% → 98.2% |
| April 15, 2025 | ±17.41% | -35.94% | 2.06× | — |
| January 15, 2025 | ±18.79% | -1.99% | 0.11× | 148.0% → 106.4% |