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AST SpaceMobile ASTS 30.2 -5.42 -15.22% Regime: Trend Down (95%)

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $30.30
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±4.6% ±$1.40 $28.90 – $31.70 $28.62 – $31.98 $27.29 – $33.31
2 sessions ±6.4% ±$1.95 $28.35 – $32.25 $27.94 – $32.66 $26.10 – $34.50
3 sessions Earnings ±18.1% ±$5.47 $24.83 – $35.77 $23.57 – $37.03 $18.57 – $42.03
1 week Earnings ±19.6% ±$5.92 $24.38 – $36.22 $22.94 – $37.66 $17.85 – $42.75
2 weeks Earnings ±22.4% ±$6.80 $23.50 – $37.10 $21.90 – $38.70 $15.97 – $44.63
3 weeks Earnings ±24.9% ±$7.53 $22.77 – $37.83 $20.97 – $39.63 $14.47 – $46.13
1 month Earnings ±27.4% ±$8.31 $21.99 – $38.61 $19.99 – $40.61 $12.84 – $47.76
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. ASTS reports in 3 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±15.66%
Average actual move
7.20%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 5
Median IV change
-21.95%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 11, 2026 ±13.49% +4.17% 0.31× 117.7% → 94.5%
May 12, 2026 ±16.20% -11.62% 0.72× 148.9% → 116.3%
August 12, 2025 ±13.83% +8.36% 0.60× 118.0% → 97.8%
May 13, 2025 ±13.68% -2.25% 0.16× 126.6% → 95.1%
November 15, 2024 ±21.08% -9.59% 0.45× 188.3% → 111.6%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →