CARR Moves

Carrier Global Corporation CARR 55.66 0.29 0.52%

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Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $55.66

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.6% ±$0.88	$54.78 – $56.54	$54.61 – $56.71	$53.78 – $57.54
2 sessions	±2.2% ±$1.22	$54.44 – $56.88	$54.18 – $57.14	$53.03 – $58.29
3 sessions	±2.8% ±$1.54	$54.12 – $57.20	$53.83 – $57.49	$52.39 – $58.93
1 week	±3.5% ±$1.95	$53.71 – $57.61	$53.27 – $58.05	$51.50 – $59.82
2 weeks	±4.8% ±$2.68	$52.98 – $58.34	$52.34 – $58.98	$49.93 – $61.39
3 weeks	±5.8% ±$3.26	$52.40 – $58.92	$51.61 – $59.71	$48.78 – $62.54
1 month	±6.8% ±$3.76	$51.90 – $59.42	$50.97 – $60.35	$47.69 – $63.63

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±6.50%

Average actual move

5.26%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 2

Median IV change

-24.36%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
July 28, 2026	±5.99%	-8.90%	1.49×	—
February 11, 2025	±7.02%	-1.62%	0.23×	49.6% → 29.4%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →