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Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ 49.75 0.64 1.3%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 13 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 13, 2026 close · $49.62
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.3% ±$0.66 $48.96 – $50.28 $48.82 – $50.42 $48.20 – $51.04
2 sessions ±1.9% ±$0.92 $48.70 – $50.54 $48.50 – $50.74 $47.63 – $51.61
3 sessions ±2.4% ±$1.17 $48.45 – $50.79 $48.23 – $51.01 $47.14 – $52.10
1 week ±3.0% ±$1.48 $48.14 – $51.10 $47.81 – $51.43 $46.47 – $52.77
2 weeks ±4.3% ±$2.13 $47.49 – $51.75 $46.99 – $52.25 $45.08 – $54.16
3 weeks ±5.4% ±$2.69 $46.93 – $52.31 $46.27 – $52.97 $43.93 – $55.31
1 month ±6.5% ±$3.24 $46.38 – $52.86 $45.58 – $53.66 $42.75 – $56.49
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±3.51%
Average actual move
2.40%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 7
Median IV change
-16.56%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
November 05, 2026 ±3.48% -1.45% 0.42× —
August 06, 2026 ±3.24% +1.56% 0.48× —
May 07, 2026 ±3.29% -1.95% 0.59× 36.7% → 30.9%
March 05, 2026 ±4.53% +2.58% 0.57× —
August 07, 2025 ±3.03% -2.90% 0.96× 30.8% → 25.4%
May 08, 2025 ±3.56% +4.41% 1.24× —
March 06, 2025 ±3.46% +1.93% 0.56× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →