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Coinbase Global COIN 151.5 6.05 4.16% Regime: Trend Up (95%)

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $151.50
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±3.1% ±$4.74 $146.76 – $156.24 $145.80 – $157.20 $141.32 – $161.68
2 sessions ±4.4% ±$6.61 $144.89 – $158.11 $143.50 – $159.50 $137.26 – $165.74
3 sessions ±5.3% ±$8.07 $143.43 – $159.57 $141.86 – $161.14 $134.32 – $168.68
1 week ±6.6% ±$10.00 $141.50 – $161.50 $139.26 – $163.74 $130.18 – $172.82
2 weeks ±9.3% ±$14.06 $137.44 – $165.56 $134.09 – $168.91 $121.49 – $181.51
3 weeks ±11.3% ±$17.06 $134.44 – $168.56 $130.29 – $172.71 $115.44 – $187.56
1 month ±13.2% ±$19.95 $131.55 – $171.45 $126.59 – $176.41 $109.19 – $193.81
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±7.27%
Average actual move
8.94%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 6
Median IV change
-11.29%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
October 30, 2026 ±6.97% -10.62% 1.52× 78.9% → 78.9%
July 31, 2026 ±7.08% -10.59% 1.50× —
May 08, 2026 ±7.55% +4.25% 0.56× 79.1% → 70.2%
August 01, 2025 ±6.31% -16.70% 2.64× 65.8% → 62.0%
May 09, 2025 ±6.30% -3.48% 0.55× 70.0% → 60.8%
February 14, 2025 ±9.40% -7.98% 0.85× 86.6% → 63.6%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →