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Circle Internet Group CRCL 67.88 -1.6 -2.3%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $67.60
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±3.7% ±$2.52 $65.08 – $70.12 $64.57 – $70.63 $62.19 – $73.01
2 sessions ±5.2% ±$3.50 $64.10 – $71.10 $63.35 – $71.85 $60.04 – $75.16
3 sessions ±6.5% ±$4.41 $63.19 – $72.01 $62.33 – $72.87 $58.20 – $77.00
1 week ±8.3% ±$5.61 $61.99 – $73.21 $60.74 – $74.46 $55.65 – $79.55
2 weeks ±11.6% ±$7.81 $59.79 – $75.41 $57.94 – $77.26 $50.94 – $84.26
3 weeks ±13.5% ±$9.10 $58.50 – $76.70 $56.29 – $78.91 $48.37 – $86.83
1 month ±15.9% ±$10.77 $56.83 – $78.37 $54.15 – $81.05 $44.76 – $90.44
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±11.82%
Average actual move
10.78%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 5
Median IV change
-14.21%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
November 04, 2026 ±10.80% +1.20% 0.11× —
August 05, 2026 ±12.37% +0.05% 0.00× —
May 11, 2026 ±13.50% +15.91% 1.18× —
February 25, 2026 ±10.92% +35.47% 3.25× —
August 12, 2025 ±11.49% +1.27% 0.11× 102.0% → 87.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →